Economie

Ce que sera l’économie mondiale en 2017, selon Euler Hermès

Le spécialiste de l’assurance-crédit, Euler Hermès a levé le voile sur les perspectives de l’économie mondiale pour 2017.


Euler Hermès, qui a présenté ses grandes conclusions dans le cadre de la 4ème édition l’Observatoire International du Commerce, en collaboration avec son partenaire BMCE Bank of Africa, estime que les gouvernements récemment élus dans différents pays (France, Allemagne, Pays-Bas, Etats-Unis, etc.) pourraient insuffler une nouvelle dynamique à l’économie mondiale. Aussi, de nouvelles mesures fiscales pour soutenir la croissance, des politiques monétaires erratiques pour faire face à la reflation américaine, et des politiques industrielles renforcées (réformes structurelles, innovation et soutien financier) pourraient changer la donne pour bon nombre d’entreprises. Le numéro un mondial de l’assurance-crédit estime que les administrations les plus passives seront les plus exposées aux fuites de capitaux et aux turbulences provenant de l’extérieur.

Défaillance

Notons qu’en 2017, la croissance du commerce mondial (+3,1%) devrait être de moitié inférieure à sa moyenne de long terme. Une situation qui trouve sa source, entre autres, dans les chocs de demande (crises actuelles au Brésil et en Russie), l’ajustement structurel de la demande (rééquilibrage de la Chine, autonomie énergétique aux Etats-Unis), le durcissement de la politique monétaire américaine impliquant des dépréciations de devises, et la hausse des coûts d’importations. Euler Hermès a aussi remarqué que la tendance à l’isolationnisme est croissante, et en veut pour preuve le nombre de mesures protectionnistes enregistrées au premier semestre 2016 (plus de 350). De même, il estime que la légère reprise de l’investissement privé observée en 2016 pourrait être compromise. On note de même que la dette se creuse et que la trésorerie s’accumule, mettant ainsi en lumière le contraste existant entre richesse disponible et frilosité des entreprises. « La croissance est restée résiliente cette année. Mais la résilience n’est pas suffisante pour freiner la hausse des défaillances d’entreprises », souligne Ludovic Subran, Chef économiste Euler Hermès. « En 2016, les défaillances devraient augmenter dans la plupart des pays émergents et aux Etats-Unis, mais décroître en Europe Occidentale. A l’échelle mondiale, elles devraient augmenter de +1% en 2016, pour la première fois depuis la crise financière de 2009. Même si le nombre de défaillances d’entreprises n’augmentera pas de manière significative, les faillites de grosses entreprises seront en hausse, et les délais de paiement ne devraient pas se contracter », conclut-il.


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