Economie

Euler Hermès dresse son diagnostic

Euler Hermès a livré son diagnostic de l’économie marocaine le 1er décembre dernier à Casablanca lors de la quatrième édition de l’Observatoire       International du Commerce.


C’est devant un parterre de grands patrons et hommes d’affaires, que Euler Hermès a dressé le bilan de 2016, et a présenté les perspectives pour 2017. Le spécialiste de l’assurance-crédit fait notamment remarquer que le succès du Modèle Maroc étonne mais pose aussi de nombreuses questions. Le Royaume est noté B1 par Euler Hermes, la meilleure note du continent africain. Certes, le meilleur élève de la classe, mais… des risques subsistent au vu de la conjoncture régionale.

1/ Des risques politiques

  • Incertitudes politiques, sur fond de faible croissance économique, à l’approche des élections (Gambie, Zambie, Afrique du Sud, RD Congo, Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire)
  • Conflits à impact humanitaire et sécuritaire (Daesh, Shebabs e.g.)
  • Risques sociétaux : un printemps africain ?

2/ Le choc des matières premières

  • Dégradation des termes de l’échange créant un choc d’épargne
  • Politique budgétaire pro-cyclique: consolidation budgétaire néfaste pour la croissance mais nécessaire pour abaisser le prix du pétrole qui équilibre le budget
  • Politique monétaire pro-cyclique (biais de resserrement monétaire entrainé par la pression de la dépréciation du taux de change)

3/ Un risque financier en gestation

  • Les flux de capitaux s’interrompent et les délais de paiement trop courts entrainent des crises de liquidité, par exemple au Nigeria.

Euler Hermès note que l’économie marocaine a recherché l’équilibre dans un monde instable. Un équilibre extérieur qui s’est amélioré en vertu de la baisse du pétrole. De même, l’inflation faible représente un atout structurel, auquel s’ajoute une consolidation budgétaire progressive. La société d’assurance-crédit met en exergue aussi la politique de change qui privilégie la stabilité au détriment de la compétitivité. On note aussi que le Royaume est un « Bon élève » des réformes, ce qui booste son attractivité. Aussi, les politiques publiques continueront à soutenir la croissance notamment dans l’industrie, les renouvelables, et l’agriculture. Et avec un climat des affaires en amélioration, le Maroc affiche sa volonté d’être attractif pour les investisseurs étrangers. Notons aussi Euler Hermès a fait remarquer que les défaillances sont en hausse (+8% en 2016 et en 2017) et que les délais de paiements sont à surveiller. Enfin, pour le numéro un mondial de l’assurance-crédit, le Maroc prend son temps pour s’ouvrir, et risque ainsi de devoir lutter davantage pour sa montée en gamme.


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